Finalizada la fantasía de las reformas, una simulación que desgastó al gobierno durante casi dos años y que, bajo el pretexto del “acuerdo nacional”, que en realidad solo implicó la entrega parcial de la burocracia a los partidos tradicionales, ahora no le queda otro camino al presidente Petro que ejecutar y tratar de hacer un buen gobierno en el corto tiempo que le queda, es decir, hacer lo que hasta ahora no ha hecho muy bien, por decir lo menos.
Es recurrente que los gobiernos con problemas de ejecución anuncien a viva voz cada año “este sí es el año” y terminen pasando todo el cuatrienio con anuncios, ruedas de prensa, y al final no suceda absolutamente nada. Como país, acabamos de atravesar un duro 2023, en el que la economía cerró con un crecimiento del 0,6%, el más bajo en los últimos 20 años, excluyendo el año 2020, año de la pandemia.
El Presupuesto General de la Nación para 2023 fue de 423 billones, incluyendo los 17,6 billones logrados gracias a la que parece ser la única reforma aprobada por este congreso, la tributaria. Sin embargo, 261 billones se destinan a funcionamiento, es decir, lo necesario para mantener en marcha la maquina llamada Estado cada año, 79 billones para el servicio de la deuda, lo que gastamos en los gobiernos anteriores, y solo 83 billones, de los 423 billones, se presupuestaron para inversión, es decir, la platica para el Cambio.
Según el informe publicado por el Observatorio Fiscal de la Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, se ejecutó el 90% de los recursos destinados a funcionamiento, el 96% para el pago de la deuda y solo el 71% de inversión. Es decir, se dejaron de ejecutar los dineros que se habían obtenido de la reforma tributaria. Entonces, ¿para qué reforma? En la administración pública, nada se encuentra más asociado a la incapacidad que la baja ejecución presupuestal, ya que implica tener infinitas necesidades por cubrir y, simplemente por inoperancia, no lograr sacar adelante los proyectos.
Para quienes votamos por el presidente, quizás lo más doloroso sea ver cómo pasa el tiempo con anuncios todos los días y el país sigue igual, e incluso en algunos aspectos, peor que cuando recibió lo que el presidente denomina “el mandato popular”. Con moderación y sin alarmismo alguno, sentimos que el país no se convertirá en una nueva Venezuela, pero tampoco logrará ser una Nueva Colombia; al parecer, las cosas no cambiarán de forma significativa.
Por otro lado, la economía, a diferencia de lo que esperan los opositores al gobierno mientras doblan rodilla, suplican y dan vueltas a una camándula, va bien, y según los informes del Banco Mundial, irá mejor para 2024 y 2025, sin importar lo turbulenta que pueda estar la política. Al parecer, el PIB no tiene relación con el tweet, o al menos eso sugieren los datos hasta ahora. No obstante, si no se ejecuta el presupuesto de manera eficiente, poco o nada se podrá aprovechar del crecimiento que se avecina. Entonces, el próximo año tendremos que volver a decir: “Este año sí será” aunque nunca sea…
P.D.: Esperamos que este año sí sea para el Atlético Bucaramanga.
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